Modelling and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 in Cameroon and Assessing the Governmental Measures (March–September 2020)

COVID-19 is an acute respiratory illness in humans caused by a coronavirus, capable of producing severe symptoms and, some cases, death, especially older people and those with underlying health conditions. It was originally identified China 2019 became pandemic 2020. On 6 March 2020, Cameroon recorded its first cases infection COVID-19. The Government (GOC) took 13 barrier measures on 18 1 May 19 new were adopted, easing restrictions encouraging economic activity. June, schools universities reopened, after which massive screening began to take place throughout the country. In this study, we have modelled epidemic order assess governmental response predict behaviour As result these measures, evolved three phases. phase ended 15 During phase, actual curve cumulative positive based field data closely fit theoretical resulting from mathematical modelling. beginning May, predicted that nearly 3000 would be declared mid-May confirmed predictions: there 2954 as second beyond encompasses period when GOC’s relaxation takes effect. This marked acceleration number starting third week postponing expected peak two weeks. Under Phase 2 conditions, onset will occur early June extend through weeks June. However, occurs reopening combined screening; therefore (around June). GOC should, at stage, strengthen plan tripling current coverage capacity regain convergence conditions associated measures. begin descent month august, but remain endemic for least one year.